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Cost sensitivity: how much slippage can this edge survive?

Every backtest result is really a bet: this edge is worth more than what it costs to trade it. Cost sensitivity tells you where that bet stops paying — the break-even slippage, the point where costs cancel the entire result.

It's on every finished run that stored its trades. Open the run and scroll to Cost sensitivity.

Why break-even beats the P&L figure

"Net $59,366" answers a question nobody can act on, because it's true only for one cost assumption you typed in earlier. "Breaks even at 3.8 ticks per side" is a claim you can actually check against reality: is your broker filling you inside 3.8 ticks on this contract, at the times this strategy trades?

Two results with identical P&L can be completely different bets:

| | Net P&L | Breaks even at | |---|---|---| | Strategy A | $50,000 | 12 ticks/side | | Strategy B | $50,000 | 1.2 ticks/side |

A is a real edge with room to spare. B is a rounding error away from worthless — one bad fill per trade and it's gone. The P&L column can't tell them apart. The break-even column can.

As a rough guide: if break-even is under ~1 tick per side, treat the result as noise. Under 2, treat it as fragile. Well above your realistic fill quality, you have something worth testing further. These are starting points, not rules — a strategy trading one contract in a liquid session at 09:35 faces different fills from one trading ten contracts at 03:00.

How to read the panel

The line is net P&L against slippage. It's straight, because slippage is a flat charge per contract per side — every extra tick costs the same dollars regardless of whether the trade won. The orange marker is where it crosses zero.

The slider moves the assumption. The stat cards below it — net, profit factor, average trade, max drawdown — update instantly to that cost level.

Nothing is re-backtested. The fills are fixed; only what they cost changes. That's why the slider is instant, and it's also the point: it isolates one variable cleanly.

The part this can't tell you

Costs hit a strategy twice, and only one of them is measured here.

  1. Directly — every trade costs more. That's what the slider shows, and it's exact.
  2. Through selection — costs are part of the score the optimizer maximizes, so raising them changes which settings win each search window, which changes which trades you get at all.

The second effect needs a real re-run to measure, and it can be large enough to move the answer in a surprising direction: a re-run at higher slippage can produce a better headline number, because the optimizer, now penalised for churn, picks calmer settings that trade less.

That's a genuinely useful thing to know about a strategy — but it is not "slippage sensitivity", and confusing the two is one of the easier ways to talk yourself into a bad system. If you want the selection effect, re-run the walk-forward with the new cost setting in Settings and compare. If you want to know whether the edge survives worse fills, use the slider.

Portfolios: members don't share a break-even

Each member trades its own instrument, and instruments have different tick values — a tick of GC is $10, a tick of ES is $12.50, a tick of MES is $1.25. So the same tick of slippage costs each member a different amount, and the member table shows each one's own break-even.

This is worth reading before you trust a portfolio. A combination can look healthy while one member is already underwater at realistic costs and the other is carrying it.

When it isn't available

Refusing is deliberate in each case. A cost curve built on a guessed instrument would look exactly as convincing as a correct one.

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Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect trading results.