ALGOCRUCIBLE
Strategy validation, portfolio construction & prop-firm certification · NinjaTrader 8

Only real edges survive.

AlgoCrucible puts your algorithmic futures strategies through the fire — optimization, walk-forward, and a fixed-parameter audit that tells a genuine edge from an overfit mirage. Then it stress-tests your risk, shows what holding it would actually have been like, and certifies it — against a prop firm's rules, or a standard you set yourself.

Runs on NinjaTrader's own backtest engine — real fills, no black box. Your strategies never leave your machine.
Version 1.0.16 · Windows 10/11 · signed installer · what's new
The crucible run

A backtest that looks great is the easiest thing in trading to produce — and the most expensive to trust. Six stages decide whether yours is real.

01 · OPTIMIZE

Find the edge

A sample-efficient Bayesian search explores the settings. Is there an edge at all?

02 · WALK-FORWARD

Test over time

Re-fits on a rolling window and grades each winner on unseen data. Does it hold up?

03 · AUDIT

The deploy gate

One fixed setting must survive two separate out-of-sample periods. Robust, or a mirage?

04 · PERTURB

Shake the settings

Nudges every parameter to expose lucky, cliff-edge fits that only work by coincidence.

05 · STRESS-TEST

Model the risk

Monte Carlo reshuffles your trade history thousands of ways to reveal true drawdown risk.

06 · CERTIFY

Judge it against rules

Models a prop firm's exact rules for your odds of passing — or your own standard, if the account is yours.

Every audit ends in a verdict: ✓ ROBUST or ✕ MIRAGE — real structure, or the optimizer fooling you.
Why it matters

Three things stand between a lucky backtest and a funded account.

Catch the mirage

Most "profitable" strategies are curve-fit illusions that die on live data. The audit gate is built to fail them — before your account does.

Know your real risk

Thousands of Monte Carlo simulations turn one lucky backtest into an honest distribution: worst-case drawdown, your odds, your bust probability.

Build a portfolio, then live with it

Combine validated strategies and see what the book would really have been like — how deep the drawdowns ran, and how long you'd have spent underwater. Certify it against a prop firm's rules, or against limits you set yourself.

Who it's for

For traders who'd rather know the truth than believe a backtest.

Systematic & algo traders

You have strategies — which are real?

Run every candidate through the same gauntlet and trade only the ones that survive out-of-sample.

Prop-firm challengers

Chasing a funded account?

Know your true odds, and build a book engineered to pass the rules — no hedging conflicts, no over-concentration.

Developers & vendors

Selling or sharing strategies?

Ship them with honest, two-window out-of-sample evidence that buyers can actually trust.

Trading your own account

Building a book to hold for years?

No evaluation to pass — just the question of whether you'd still be trading it after a bad run. See how long each drawdown kept you underwater, and set your own limits on depth, duration, correlation and concentration for a portfolio to meet.

If you're chasing a funded account

A single, honest number: your probability of passing.

AlgoCrucible models a firm's profit target, daily-loss limit, and trailing drawdown across thousands of simulated evaluation runs — including the pay-monthly-until-pass-or-bust firms, where it reports the months and fees it typically takes.

And if you're not — trading your own account, with no evaluation to pass — the same machinery answers the question that actually decides whether you keep a system: how long each drawdown kept you underwater, what you earned for the worst one, and whether the book clears the limits you set on depth, duration, correlation and concentration.

Probability of passing
73.4%
50K evaluation (modeled) · 2 contracts · block-bootstrap Monte Carlo
Median to pass
28d
Busts first
18.1%
95th DD
$1,740
Modeled estimate — not a guarantee. Hypothetical, based on daily P&L and limited history; real firms measure intraday and stricter. Illustrative sample.
Pricing

Start free. Upgrade when you're ready to certify.

Free
$0
30 days · no card
  • Optimize, Walk-forward & Audit
  • Up to 3 strategies
  • ROBUST / MIRAGE verdicts
  • Certification & portfolios
  • Monte Carlo & perturbation
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$39/mo
or $390/yr — two months free
  • Everything in Free, unlimited strategies
  • Perturbation & Monte Carlo robustness
  • Prop-firm certification — P(pass)
  • Portfolio builder + rule compliance
  • Saved profiles & settings
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$99/mo
or $990/yr · vendors & coaches
  • Everything in Trader
  • Exportable, branded certification reports
  • Unlimited portfolios
  • Priority support
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Prices in USD · monthly or yearly · secure checkout by Paddle (Merchant of Record, handles tax/VAT) · runs locally on your machine · purchase from inside the app or start with the free trial
No hype. No guarantees.

Just the truth about your edge.

Every figure here is a hypothetical, model-based estimate — and we say so, on every report. AlgoCrucible won't promise you'll pass. It tells you, honestly, whether your strategy has earned the right to try.

Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing one's financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect trading results.